Hi all,

It was another shortened trading week with the markets closed in honor of the late Jimmy Carter. However, that did not prevent a large degree of volatility. Friday’s very strong employment report was not received well by traders and investors who were hoping to see the economy cool off more so the Fed would feel at liberty to cut rates more. More cuts now seem very unlikely in the short term.

Longer-term treasury bond yields continued to push higher above the 4.5% level. As yields go higher, the more attractive it becomes for investors as a place to park money safely and get a good return. Yields also are being pushed higher by ever-increasing deficits globally and potential inflationary policies by an incoming administration. I can see yields going even higher unless the tariff talk is dialed down.

Next week we get PPI and CPI data Tuesday and Wed then retail sales Thursday. All those reports plus the unknown coming US government policies will be keeping the markets volatile.

Cheers. 

Brian

 

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Sectors in Play Last Week

• Energy and Healthcare were the sectors up the most this week.
• Real Estate and Tech were the worst-performing sectors this week.

Key Levels for this Week

• DOW (41,938) – support 41,650 and resistance 43,300
• QQQ (507)– support 502 and resistance 516
• SPY (581) – support 575 and resistance 590
• IWM (217) – support 215 and resistance 220

Economic Reports this Week

• Monday – 2:00 US Budget
• Tuesday – 8:30 PPI data 
• Wednesday – 8:30 CPI data
• Thursday – 8:30 Jobless Claims; Retail Sales; 10:00 Business Inventories
• Friday – 8:30 Housing starts; 9:15 Industrial Production

Notable Earnings this week

• Monday – KBH post
• Tues – nada
• Wed – – JPM, GS, WFC, C, BLK and post KMI
• Thurs – UNH, BAC, MS pre, and JEF post 
• Friday – SLB, FAST pre

Positions and Trades Last Week

• ADBE – stopped out for a loss.
• AMD – long from the prior week’s watchlist using $125 options expiring Friday 10th. Got out with a very nice profit on Monday.
• AVGO – sold half last week – out the rest at BE
• KMI – long play on natural gas from 2 weeks ago watchlist. Still long but may take some profits here.
• TD – long – will continue to sell calls to collect premium.
• X – long from last week’s watchlist.

Tracking for Potential Trades

• BABA – Continues to look weak as China's economy struggles. $76 next area of support.
• META and SNAP – potential beneficiaries of a TikTok ban…waiting for a decision from the Supreme Court. SNAP looks ready to break out on ban news from the $12.6 R level and META back to an all-time high of about $637.
• TBT – if inflationary policies are enacted by the new administration, rates and the TBT ETF will go higher.
• TSLA - $360 next level of support. More tariffs on China might hurt TSLA as it could become a target of retaliation by Chinese officials.

Note: These are investments I am in or watching however, they may not be suitable for all investors. The author of this email is NOT an investment advisory service, a registered investment advisor, or a broker-dealer. I do NOT undertake to advise clients or recipients of this email on which securities they should buy or sell for themselves. This email is provided for information purposes only and traders should always consult with their licensed financial and tax advisors to determine the suitability of any investment.