Hi all,

This week we got CPI and PPI reports, which were a little hotter than expected. The markets did not take long to shake off that news even though the Fed's chance of further rate cuts seemed less likely based on that information.

Retail sales were reported on Friday with results showing a 2-year low as consumers possibly pulled back on spending going into the new year. This brought the potential of rate cuts back on the table later in the year. However, in his testimony to Congress this week, Powell said they were in no hurry to make any further cuts.

Earnings rolled in through the week with more mixed responses to the releases. HOOD, SMCI, ABNB, and UPST were up while RDDT, LYFT, and TTD took big hits on price.

Expect another volatile week with more earnings releases but the season is winding down. Tariff talk is proving a little more bark than bite right now. Longer term, the DOGE initiatives may have more of a negative impact on the economy – we will have to wait and see how it plays out. 

Cheers,

Brian

 

Recap Video

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Sectors in Play Last Week

• Technology and Communication Services were the sectors up the most this week.
• Energy was the only sector that was down this week.

Key Levels for this Week

• DOW (44,546) – support 43,900 and resistance 44,800
• QQQ (538)– support 520 and resistance 539
• SPY (601) – support 598 and resistance 610
• IWM (226) – support 220 and resistance 230

Economic Reports this Week

• Monday – Holiday
• Tuesday – 8:30 Empire Manufacturing Survey; 10:00 Home builder confidence.
• Wednesday – 8:30 Housing Starts and Permits; 2:00 Fed minutes.
• Thursday – 8:30 Jobless Claims; 10:00 US Leading Economic Indicators.
• Friday – 9:45 S&P Manufacturing and Services PMI; 10:00 Consumer Sentiment.

Notable Earnings this week

• Monday – Holiday
• Tues – BIDU pre and DVN, OXY post
• Wed – ETSY, GRMN pre and CVNA, TOST post
• Thurs – WMT, BABA, U pre and RIVN, XYZ (formally SQ), MELI post
• Friday – nothing of note

Positions and Trades Last Week

• GDX – from last week’s watchlist, long ETF gold miners – took some profits at $42…pullback on Friday might be a break in trend – stop out of the rest is possible next week.
• KMI –still long after earnings pullback. Held to collect dividend last 
• week. Still holding but getting near the stop of $26.
• NVDA – long on breakout – looking for a gap fill at $142.
• TD – long for a while, took some profits, and still long some.
• UVXY – late last Friday trade for more fear in the market on Monday….did not materialize and stopped out for a small loss.
• Tracking for Potential Trades
• AMZN – sold off after earnings. Still watching for a bottom around support of $228 or maybe lower at $225 – could sell some puts there but may want to consider buying more puts at a lower level to define your risk.
• META – strong price action and more upside likely.
• MU – moved up strong on Friday. $105 and $110 are possible targets to the upside. $96 is support and a pullback to that area could be a good entry.
• UBER – Was looking for a pullback last week but never happened. $77 to $78 could be a good entry for long or sell puts and be prepared to own the stock at that strike price.

Note: These are investments I am in or watching however, they may not be suitable for all investors. The author of this email is NOT an investment advisory service, a registered investment advisor, or a broker-dealer and I do NOT undertake to advise clients or recipients of this email on which securities they should buy or sell for themselves. This email is provided for information purposes only and traders should always consult with their licensed financial and tax advisors to determine the suitability of any investment.