Hi all,

What a difference a week makes. The markets bounced back nicely last week after a number of down weeks. Good reports from MSFT and GOOGL helped the technology and growth sectors. I was looking for a bounce after the selling we have been seeing. 

During the week, we got GDP numbers that showed a weakening economy overall. On Friday we got the PCE price index data (the Feds favored inflation indicator) which showed that inflation is still remaining persistently above the target level of 2%. The markets did not seem to be fazed but hopes of any rate cuts in the near future continue to die.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East seem to have cooled off a bit which helped the markets although unfortunately there is no long-term resolution in sight.

Watch for more volatility next week. Earnings will influence if the markets can continue to rally back higher. It does seem like the downtrend may have been broken.

Recap Video

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Sectors in Play Last Week

• Technology and Consumer Discretionary were the biggest gaining sectors this week.
• Materials and Healthcare were the sectors that gained the least.

Key Levels for this Week

• DOW (38,239) – support 37,700 and resistance 38,600
• QQQ (431) – support 415 and resistance 433
• SPY (508) – support 495 and resistance 510
• IWM (198) – support 193 and resistance 200

What to Watch for this Week

• Monday – nothing
• Tuesday – 9:45 Chicago business barometer; 10:00 Consumer Confidence.
• Wednesday –8:15 ADP employment; 10:00 ISM manufacturing; 2:00 Fed rate decision then 2:30 Powell speaks.
• Thursday –8:30 Jobless claims; 10:00 Factory orders.
• Friday – 8:30 Unemployment data and wages.

Earnings this week

• Monday – ON, DPZ pre and NXPI post
• Tues – LLY, KO, MCD pre and AMZN, SBUX post
• Wed – MA, PFE pre and QCOM, DASH post
• Thurs – NVO, SHEL, LIN pre and AAPL, AMGN, EOG post
• Friday – HSY, LNG, TRP pre

Positions and Trades Last Week

• Long gold, silver, and oil stocks.
• BA – short $260 call position. 
• BA – new short $160 puts expire May 3rd.
• GOOGL – sadly sold before the earnings release.
• META – sold before earnings release as per my rule.
• NFLX – as per last week’s plan sold $545 puts – expired worthless
• NVDA – long again.
• NVDA – Option trade Friday (0DTE), sold $900 calls expired worthless and kept premium.

Tracking for Potential Trades

• AAPL - $165 support but earnings are next week – watch to see if it holds.
• AMZN - $165 held – watch after earnings for direction of price.
• AXP – strong after earning could sell puts or sell calls if it looks toppy
• ETHX.b – still watching to re-enter on a pullback. It seems to be holding the $15 area for support.
• GOOGL – Big move after earnings release but pulled back of its highs. See what happens earnings next week to see if $175 now becomes resistance.
• META - $420 is support on pullback and $480 to $500 is a gap fill where resistance will occur.
• NFLX - $540 support and $580 is immediate resistance, then $600 is a gap fill. Potential to sell puts again and also calls.

 

Note: These are investments I am in or watching however, they may not be suitable for all investors. The author of this email is NOT an investment advisory service, a registered investment advisor, or a broker-dealer and I do NOT undertake to advise clients or recipients of this email on which securities they should buy or sell for themselves. This email is provided for information purposes only and traders should always consult with their licensed financial and tax advisors to determine the suitability of any investment.