Hi all,

The much-anticipated NVDA earnings numbers were released this week. While they doubled revenues quarter over quarter, it did not seem to meet investors and trader’s higher expectations, so the stock sold off a little after the news.

The Feds favorite inflation gauge, the PCE index was reported Friday and was pretty much in line with market expectations. The CME fed watch tool is maintaining an outlook of at least a 0.25% rate cut at their coming meeting Sept 18th. The real debate is whether they will go to a 0.50% rate cut.

The rate cut I believe might hinge on what the jobs data looks like this coming Friday. A continuing increase in unemployment might sway the Fed to go bigger on the cut.

As I mentioned last week, we are entering one of the traditionally worst market months of the year. The past four Septembers have been negative (-3.92%, -4.76%, -9.34%, -4.87% in the years 2020-24), with ’20 and ’21 dropping after very good Augusts (+7.01%, +2.9%). Just something to keep in mind with SPY close to all-time high.

Recap Video

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Sectors in Play Last Week

• Financials and Industrials were the biggest gaining sectors this week.
• Tech and Consumer Disc were the sectors in the red this week.

Key Levels for this Week

• DOW (41,563) – support 40,800 and resistance 42,000
• QQQ (476) – support 465 and resistance 485
• SPY (568) – support 555 and resistance 570
• IWM (220) – support 211 and resistance 222

What to Watch for this Week

• Monday – Holiday
• Tuesday – 9:45 Manufacturing PMI; 10:00 ISM Manufacturing
• Wednesday – 10:00 Job Openings and Factory Orders; 2:00 Beige book
• Thursday –8:15 ADP Employment; 8:30 Jobless claims; 9:45 Services PMI; 10:00 ISM Services
• Friday – 8:30 US Employment and Wages Report

Earnings this week

• Monday - Holiday
• Tues – – ZS, GTLB post
• Wed –DKS, DLTR pre and CPRT post
• Thurs – NIO pre and AVGO, DOCU post
• Friday – nada

Positions and Trades Last Week

Cash % level is high now. Waiting for new opportunities.

• AMZN – long on Friday – still holding some.
• CMG – long.
• GDX – long gold.
• NVDA – exited before earnings report.
• PLTR – long small size.
• NFLX – shorted $675 puts – expired Friday.

Tracking for Potential Trades

• SPXL – possible slow grind higher on SPY
• SBUX – range bound trade $97 is high and $90 support
• NFLX – again continues to look strong – possible put vertical or selling naked puts for the risk takers.
• UVXY – on a possible meltdown in stocks again if employment numbers keep going higher.

Note: These are investments I am in or watching however, they may not be suitable for all investors. The author of this email is NOT an investment advisory service, a registered investment advisor or a broker-dealer and I do NOT undertake to advise clients or recipients of this email on which securities they should buy or sell for themselves. This email is provided for information purposes only and traders should always consult with their licensed financial and tax advisors to determine the suitability of any investment.