Hi all,

Everyone was waiting for Fed Powell’s speech from Jackson Hole on Friday and the markets seemed happy with what he said. There was a pretty firm confirmation that the Fed will start with an interest rate cut at their September meeting.

The rate and depth of the cuts are still data dependent as Powell always likes to say but right now the CME watch tool has an approximately 1/3 chance of a 0.50% cut with a 2/3 chance of a 0.25% cut.

The rate cut optimism has pushed the market back up to near all-time highs after that brief Japan carry trade sell-off that seems like a distant memory.

We are about to enter one of the traditionally worst market months of the year. The past four Septembers have been negative (-3.92%, -4.76%, -9.34%, -4.87% in the years 2020-24), with ’20 and ’21 dropping after very good Augusts (+7.01%, +2.9%). Just something to keep in mind with SPY and DOW close to their highs.

Recap Video

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Sectors in Play Last Week

• Real Estate and Consumer D were the biggest gaining sectors this week.
• Energy was the only sector in the red this week but just barely.

Key Levels for this Week

• DOW (41,175) – support 40,800 and resistance 41,375
• QQQ (480) – support 460 and resistance 500
• SPY (565) – support 540 and resistance 562
• IWM (220) – support 211 and resistance 225

What to Watch for this Week

• Monday – 8:30 Durable-goods Orders
• Tuesday – 9:00 Home price index; 10:00 Consumer Confidence
• Wednesday – 2:00 Minutes from the July Fed meeting
• Thursday –8:30 Jobless claims and GDP revision; 10:00 Pending Home Sales
• Friday – 8:30 PCE Index; 10:00 Consumer Sentiment

Earnings this week

• Monday – PDD pre and TRIP post
• Tues – BOX post
• Wed – CHWY, ANF pre and CRM 4:00, CRWD and AFRM 4:05, NVDA 4:20 post
• Thurs – BBY pre and DELL, LULU, ULTA all at 4:05 post
• Friday – nada

Positions and Trades Last Week

The cash % level is high now. Waiting for new opportunities.

• CMG – long
• GDX – long gold.
• NVDA – still long, small size remaining.
• PLTR – stopped out but got back in after earnings.
• SOXL – small size remaining – stopped out.
• TSLA – small size remaining – stopped out.
• TLT – Short Sept $91 puts. Bought out to close position.

Tracking for Potential Trades

• TNA – possible continuation higher on small-cap stocks.
• SPXL – possible slow grind higher on SPY
• SBUX – range bound trade $95 is high and $90 support
• NFLX – continues to look strong – possibly put vertical or selling naked puts for the risk-takers.

Note: These are investments I am in or watching however, they may not be suitable for all investors. The author of this email is NOT an investment advisory service, a registered investment advisor, or a broker-dealer and I do NOT undertake to advise clients or recipients of this email on which securities they should buy or sell for themselves. This email is provided for information purposes only and traders should always consult with their licensed financial and tax advisors to determine the suitability of any investment.