Hi all,

The markets had a rough week overall as economic data continues to look strong. There was lots of Fed speakers this week presenting a hawkish outlook with some suggesting more rate hikes may be needed to get inflation to the 2% target. We started out with an expectation of 6 rate cuts in 2024 and now getting even 3 might be off the table.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East did not help the mood of the markets. Concerns are that the conflict may continue to escalate although it seems things are cooling off over the last couple of days.

Lastly, poor reports by ASML and TSM hit the semiconductors very hard this week. NVDA seemed invincible only weeks ago however the stock price took a 10% haircut on Friday as the selling was relentless throughout the day.

Watch for more volatility this week as we grind through earnings season and get to the PCE price index Friday morning.

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Sectors in Play Last Week

• Utilities and Consumer Defensive were the only sectors up this week.
• Technology and Consumer Discretionary were the biggest losing sectors of the week.

Key Levels for this Week

• DOW (37,986) – support 37,600 and resistance 38,750
• QQQ (417) – support 410 and resistance 430
• SPY (495) – support 490 and resistance 510
• IWM (193) – support 190 and resistance 199

What to Watch for this Week

• Monday – nothing
• Tuesday – 9:45 S&P Flash PMI data; 10:00 New Home sales.
• Wednesday –8:30 Durable goods orders.
• Thursday –8:30 Jobless claims, GDP, and Retail / Wholesale Inventories; 10:00 Pending Home Sales.
• Friday – 8:30 PCE price index data; 10:00 Consumer Sentiment.

Earnings this week

• Monday – VZ pre and CLF, NUE post
• Tues – GM, UPS, GE pre and TSLA, V, ENPH post
• Wed – BA, T pre and META, IBM, F, CMG post
• Thurs – RCL, AAL, CAT pre and MSFT, SNAP, INTC, ROKU GOOGL post
• Friday – CVS, ABBV, XOM pre

Positions and Trades Last Week

• Long gold, silver, and oil stocks. Took some profits Friday.
• AMZN – sold.
• AAPL – sold.
• BA – short $260 call position. 
• BA – new short $190 calls expire April 19th.
• GOOG – long small.
• GDX – small gold position but might be a double top.
• META – long small.
• NVDA – sold.
• NVDA – Option trade Friday (0DTE), sold $810 calls expired worthless and kept premium.

Tracking for Potential Trades

• AXP – strong after earning could sell puts or sell calls if it looks toppy
• BA – still looks weak. May exit $260 short call trade.
• ETHX.b - watching to re-enter on a pullback. Seems to be holding the $13 area for support.
• NFLX - $540 support and $610 resistance.

 

Note: These are investments I am in or watching however, they may not be suitable for all investors. The author of this email is NOT an investment advisory service, a registered investment advisor, or a broker-dealer and I do NOT undertake to advise clients or recipients of this email on which securities they should buy or sell for themselves. This email is provided for information purposes only and traders should always consult with their licensed financial and tax advisors to determine the suitability of any investment.