As part of its commitment to the 2015 Paris Accord, the US – historically the world’s biggest polluter – has set a goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by at least half by 2030, relative to 2005 levels. And America’s Inflation Reduction Act, passed in 2022, was meant to help put the country on track to meet that objective by offering generous subsidies and tax breaks to the energy and transportation sectors.
But, something unexpected happened in late 2022 that began disrupting that noble plan: the mega-successful launch of ChatGPT kicked off a spending spree on AI data centers – massive warehouses packed with energy-sucking computing gear. Goldman Sachs forecasts that US electricity demand from data centers alone will expand at a 15% compound annual growth rate from now until 2030. That’ll leave them responsible for 8% of America’s total power demand by the end of the decade, up from about 3% currently.
Problem is, new investments in clean energy generation are struggling to keep up with this booming electricity demand, which of course is being further supercharged by increasing EV use. This means dirtier sources of energy – like coal and natural gas – will need to stick around for longer. And that will put the US’s goal a bit further out of reach, leaving it with emissions cuts of between 32% and 43% below 2005 levels by 2030, according to new analysis by research firm Rhodium Group.
That disappointment could overshadow all the progress the US has made toward decarbonization. For example, its emissions fell 1.9% in 2023 from the year before even as the economy expanded by 2.5%. That left emissions 18% lower last year than they were in 2005.
Now, Rhodium notes its projections are based on current federal and state policies – and a lot could change depending on the election results in November. A stark change of leadership in Washington could result in policy reversals and potentially see the US withdraw once more from the Paris Accord. That, in turn, would put the country further behind its 2030 target – assuming that isn’t scrapped as well…
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