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How To Interpret Friday’s US Jobs Data

Trading Terminal
September 6, 2024
How To Interpret Friday’s US Jobs Data

If investors seemed a bit jittery before the big US jobs report on Friday, that’s probably because of some worrying data from US private employers earlier in the week. That report – from payroll software giant ADP – showed just 99,000 new jobs created in August, the lowest tally in over four years.

Fortunately, Friday’s big report from the US Department of Labor suggests that those jitters were mostly overblown: it showed that the economy added a reassuring 142,000 new jobs in August and that the unemployment rate actually ticked down a notch to 4.2%.

But you can understand why investors were anxious: job growth in the US isn’t as robust as it was just a few months ago. And though job growth appears to be slowing overall, those ADP figures don’t necessarily foreshadow a dismal month for the labor market as a whole. In fact, these two reports often don’t correlate at all.

Employment is slowing, although ADP isn’t a great early indicator of the overall labor market trend. Sources: Haver, abrdn.
Employment is slowing, although ADP isn’t a great early indicator of the overall labor market trend. Sources: Haver, abrdn.

On the encouraging side is the ongoing stability in initial claims for unemployment benefits: it shows that companies aren’t slashing workforces just yet. Echoing that optimism is the latest economic activity survey data, which points to solid growth.

Why should I care?

US jobs data is always a focus for investors. If the numbers fall short, it suggests a weaker economy than folks have been betting on. And these days, that could be met by a market sell-off and increased bets on a bigger economy-boosting Federal Reserve interest rate cut later this month.

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