Hi all,

It was a short but volatile trading week. The PCE price index report released Friday showed the 12-month core PCE came in at 2.8%. This was steady in comparison to March and also was in line with the market’s expectations. A slightly higher jobless claims report on Thursday also got the yields moving lower after moving up earlier in the week. 

The market went for a wild ride on Friday by selling off pretty significantly in the morning and then came ripping back higher into the close. An amazing move in both directions.

The rate cut agenda seems to be on everyone’s mind with projections ranging from a rate increase to several cuts later in the year. No cut or raise is expected at the next meeting on June 12. We are in a quiet period now so no Fed speakers until after the meeting.

The AI story took a bit of a hit this week based on guidance from Dell and CRM however, NVDA remains strong and will split 10 shares for 1 share on the 8th. A broadening out of buying in the markets and away from a few high fliers seems possible. Mildly bullish still.

Recap Video

Watch the Recap on YouTube

Sectors in Play Last Week

• Energy and Utilities were the biggest gaining sectors this week.
• Technology and Healthcare were the two sectors down the most this week.

Key Levels for this Week

• DOW (38,686) – support 38,000 and resistance 40,000
• QQQ (452) – support 445 and resistance 465
• SPY (527) – support 520 and resistance 530
• IWM (206) – support 202 and resistance 208

What to Watch for this Week

• Monday – 9:45 S&P Manufacture PMI; 10:00 Constructions spending and ISM Manufacturing.
• Tuesday – 10:00 Factory orders and Job openings
• Wednesday – 8:15 ADP Employment; ISM Services
• Thursday –8:30 Jobless claims; 10:00 Wholesale Inventories
• Friday – 8:30 Employment reports and wages.

Earnings this week

• Monday – GTLB post
• Tues – CRWD post
• Wed – LULU, FIVE post
• Thurs – ADSK pre and DOCU post
• Friday – nothing noteworthy

Positions and Trades Last Week

• Long gold stocks but trimmed position – watching.
• BA – short $260 call position. 
• ETHH – long Ethereum with Toronto Stock Exchange ETF. All out now.
• GOOGL – Sold.
• NFLX - Option trade Friday (0DTE), sold $650 calls expired worthless and kept premium.
• NVDA – Out at $1130. Held through earnings.
• MRUS – Sold remainder.
• TLT – short a few $91 puts.
• XLU – long still.

Tracking for Potential Trades

• AAPL – looks ready to break out from resistance at $192.5 – could be making a run into developer’s conference – be careful on a sell-the-news event.
• DELL – support at $135 now for a long.
• DIS – support is still at $100. Looking for an entry here.
• CRM – looks like the bottom is in and $225 is support—position on now.
• LULU – sold off a lot more. $292 is support for a bounce but they report earnings on Wed. so watch for volatility after the report.
• NFLX – broke out of trading range. $655 looks like resistance now.
• NVDA – watch for opportunities on the split that is coming at the end of this coming week.

 

Note: These are investments I am in or watching however, they may not be suitable for all investors. The author of this email is NOT an investment advisory service, a registered investment advisor, or a broker-dealer and I do NOT undertake to advise clients or recipients of this email on which securities they should buy or sell for themselves. This email is provided for information purposes only and traders should always consult with their licensed financial and tax advisors to determine the suitability of any investment.