Hi all,

September is historically the worst month for the U.S. stock market but with one trading day to go in the month, stocks may be poised for September’s first gain since 2019. 

All the indexes posted gains for the week. Most notably, the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its 32nd record close for the year on Friday as the latest inflation data provided by the PCE index indicated further price cooling. This gave traders and investors hope for additional interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Meanwhile, the economy and labor market seem to be ticking along just fine with the Commerce Department reporting 3% GDP for the last quarter and jobless claims remaining steady.

Monday will mark the end of the 3rd quarter. The trend is still up but we seem to be a little toppy, tired, and extended at these levels. I also noted that the VIX (volatility index) spiked on Friday into the close. This might indicate traders are starting to get nervous about the levels we are at currently and looking for a pullback. Jobs data on Friday is worth watching for.

Recap Video

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Sectors in Play Last Week

• Materials and Consumer Discretionary were big gainers this week.
• Energy and Healthcare were the sectors that lost the most for the week.

Key Levels for this Week

• DOW (42,313) – support 41,500 and resistance 42,600
• QQQ (487) – support 470 and resistance 495
• SPY (571) – support 560 and resistance 575
• IWM (220) – support 214 and resistance 224

What to Watch for this Week

• Monday – 9:45 Chicago Business Barometer PMI
• Tuesday – 9:45 Final Manufacturing PMI; 10:00 ISM Manufacturing and Job Openings 
• Wednesday – 8:15 ADP Employment
• Thursday –8:30 Jobless claims; 9:45 Services PMI; 10:00 Factory Orders and ISM Services
• Friday – 8:30 Payrolls, Unemployment and Wage data

Earnings this week

• Monday – CCL pre
• Tues – PAYX pre and NKE, CALM post
• Wed – LEVI, TLRY pre 
• Thurs – STZ pre
• Friday – nada

Positions and Trades Last Week

• CMG – Long. Looking for a break higher
• PLTR – long – sold remainder this week.
• UVXY – long on Friday from last week’s watchlist.

Tracking for Potential Trades

Staying light on swing trades this week – not sure which way the market is going now.

• SLV – false breakout and pullback into a prior trading range. Could see a move lower from here or if it gets above $29.4 uptrend could continue.
• FXI – very extended and into long-term resistance. Due to a pullback.
• CRWD – potential for a move higher if it can break above $300
• NFLX – broke out higher +$700 then had a pullback. If it holds here above $700 it could move higher and break through $725.

 

Note: These are investments I am in or watching however, they may not be suitable for all investors. The author of this email is NOT an investment advisory service, a registered investment advisor, or a broker-dealer and I do NOT undertake to advise clients or recipients of this email on which securities they should buy or sell for themselves. This email is provided for information purposes only and traders should always consult with their licensed financial and tax advisors to determine the suitability of any investment.