Hi all,

On Thursday, the S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data showed economic activity in both services and manufacturing improved in June and exceeded analyst expectations.

During the past few weeks, other economic data has sported a weaker tilt for businesses, workers, and consumers. However, the PMI data shows surprising continued strength among servicers and manufacturers. 

Rate cuts still hinge on the Fed seeing a weakening economy. Right now, the CME Fed watch tool is showing just under a 60% chance of a cut by September and an over 70% chance of a rate reduction by the end of the year. 

This all leads us to next Friday when we will get the PCE price index data which is the favored Fed inflation indicator.  Market bull will be hoping for numbers that are at or below expectation.

Semi stocks pulled back on some profit-taking Thursday and Friday but it seemed money rotated from tech stocks into other sectors like consumer discretionary and healthcare. Markets can continue higher as long as the money stays invested.

Recap Video

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Sectors in Play Last Week

• Consumer Discretionary and Energy were the biggest gaining sectors this week.
• Utilities and Real Estate were the two sectors down the most this week.

Key Levels for this Week

• DOW (39,150) – support 38,400 and resistance 39,300
• QQQ (480) – support 460 and resistance 490
• SPY (545) – support 530 and resistance 550
• IWM (200) – support 195 and resistance 205

What to Watch for this Week

• Monday – some fed speakers 8:30 and 3:00
• Tuesday – 9:00 Case Schiller; 10:00 Consumer Confidence
• Wednesday – 10:00 New Home Sales
• Thursday –8:30 Jobless claims and Durable Goods Orders; 10:00 Pending Home Sales
• Friday – 8:30 PCE index data – Fed’s primary inflation indicator

Earnings this week

• Monday – nothing of note
• Tues – CCL pre and FDX (4:10) post
• Wed – GIS, PAYX pre and MU (4:05), LEVI (4:10) post
• Thurs – NKE (4:15) post
• Friday – nothing of note

Positions and Trades Last Week

• NVDA – long.
• BA – short $260 call position. 
• CZR – long again
• NFLX - Option trade Friday (0DTE), sold $690 calls expired worthless and kept premium.
• TLT – New position - short Sept $91 puts. 

Tracking for Potential Trades

• AAPL – pulling back after a big AI run-up. $200 would be support and a possible good entry. Selling puts there if you don’t mind owning it at that level or keeping the premium if it does not get back to that level.
• HD – broke downtrend and heading up – first resistance around $365.
• HOOD – Bounced off $21 support on Friday with volume. Could be heading back to $25 high.
• INTC – flat lining but holding $30. Could be a good long-term hold.
• NFLX – steady uptrend and likely heading to all-time previous high around $700 next week. Probably will see resistance there.
• NVDA – $120 could be a good long entry on a little more profit-taking or sell puts there if you do not mind being forced into a long position at that level.
• SMH – a bit more of a pullback to the $256 area at 20 EMA on daily might be a good entry if we can get there on further weakness next week.

 

Note: These are investments I am in or watching however, they may not be suitable for all investors. The author of this email is NOT an investment advisory service, a registered investment advisor, or a broker-dealer and I do NOT undertake to advise clients or recipients of this email on which securities they should buy or sell for themselves. This email is provided for information purposes only and traders should always consult with their licensed financial and tax advisors to determine the suitability of any investment.