Hi all,

It was a bit of a volatile week – CPI data came in marginally lower than expected at 5.5% versus 5.6% which showed inflation continuing to trend lower. On Friday the retail sales numbers were much weaker than expected which again was a bit of good news on the inflation fight front. Of note was the VIX volatility index which continues to go lower indicating no fear of a market sell-off.

The bad news for inflation is the oil price which continues to move higher. Oil prices affects the cost of everything we transport. A continued move higher is likely going to push goods prices up again.

Next week we get more earnings from some financials including GS and BAC. NFLX and TSLA are also on deck to report Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. We will hear from some of the regional banks as well which will be informative given the pressure that they have been under since the SVB collapse.

DOW, S&P and QQQ are all at or near resistance levels. Odds are favoring a breakout higher but some bad earnings and guidance this week may prevent that from happening. Regardless, we have a low VIX and dip buyers appear to be waiting for pullbacks.

 

Key levels:

 

• DOW (33,886 now) – support level 31,800 and resistance is at 34,400
• QQQ (319) – support level 307 and resistance is here at 320 then 330
• SPY (412) – support level 380 and resistance is here at 415 then 420
• IWM (177) – support level 170 and resistance is at 180

 

Recap Video:

 

Watch the recap on YouTube

 

Positions:

 

• WLLW on Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) - long term hold. ($0.85)
• FOM on TSX - this is a small cap mining company. I like the drill results they are getting and management team is solid. Highly speculative at $3.00. Took some profits over $4.10.
• FHN - Long at $17.
• HGU - Long gold miner ETF on TSX (GDX equivalent on NYSE). Took some profits.
• PAAS - Long silver play. Took some profits.
• TLT – Shorted $103 April 6 puts - covered them and rolled up to short $105 puts.

 

What to Watch for this Week:

 

• Tuesday 8:30AM - Housing starts and permits
• Thursday 8:30AM - Jobless claims and Phily Fed Survey, 10:00 Leading economic indicators
• Friday 9:45AM – S&P services and manufacturing PMI

View the Economic Calendar on Trading Terminal

 

Sectors in Play Last Week:

 

• Energy, Basic Materials and Financials sectors were the biggest gainers for the week.
• Real Estate and Utilities were the losers.

 

Earnings this week:

 

• Monday - SCHW, HDB, STT, JBHT
• Tuesday - JNJ, BAC, GS, LMT, NFLX, IRSG
• Wednesday - ASML, ABT, MS, TSLA, AA, IBM, LRMT, LVS
• Thursday - TSM, AXP, UNP, BX, CSX
• Friday - PG, SAP, FCX, SLB

View the Earnings Calendar on Trading Terminal

 

Tracking:

 

• AAPL – $170 still resistance but AAPL still seems to have buyer.
• ABNB – Looks ready to breakout through $115.
• AMZN – Break through $104 resistance and could move higher. Opportunity to sell puts or get long.
• BA - Pulled back on bad news but well off low of day. $195 significant support area to sell puts.
• BIDU - Keeps going lower but may bounce off 200 sma on daily right here giving an opportunity to short for a breakdown and move lower.
• GOOG - Looks ready to break through $110 to $120 based on AI involvement
• NUGT – Gold keeps going higher on weak US dollar and financial market concerns. Took some profits on my gold trade.
• NVDA – Range bound trading with $280 is resistance but if QQQ moves higher – this could break higher again. Better to sell downside puts as I expect buyers are ready to support it on any weakness.
• JPM – Nice move on earnings – looking to sell upside calls with $142.5 being area of significant resistance.
• SLV – Silver on a run with gold, $24 is next area of resistance if we move higher.
• TSLA – Stock under pressure. $200 resistance and $170 support. No trade until after earnings.