Hi all,

This week we got a read on how the fight against inflation is going with both CPI and PPI data being released on Tuesday and Thursday respectively. Unfortunately for the bulls, the data indicated that the fight is not over with both numbers coming in higher than expected. CPI was up 0.4% versus the 0.3% expected.

Energy prices were also up this week which does not help with the inflation battle. Both oil and gasoline prices moved higher and, as we know, this increase in transportation fuels can ripple through the economy taking prices higher.

This Wednesday we get the rate decision at 2 PM – no one expects a move. Fed chair Powell will speak at 2:30 – this is where we could see a lot of volatility based on what he says about where inflation could be going and how the Fed intends to manage things if it continues to turn and start moving higher.

The upward trend in the markets seems to be taking a break so watch for volatility in the markets next week.

Recap Video

Watch the Recap on YouTube

Sectors in Play Last Week

• Energy was the biggest gainer this week.
• The Real Estate sector was the biggest loser of the week.

Key Levels for this Week

• DOW (38,715) – support 38,500 and resistance 39,200
• QQQ (434) – support 430 and resistance 440
• SPY (510) – support 505 and resistance 515
• IWM (202) – support 200 and resistance 207

What to Watch for this Week

• Monday – 10:00 Builders Confidence
• Tuesday – 8:30 Housing Starts and Building Permits
• Wednesday – 2:00 Interest rate decision; 2:30 Powell speaks
• Thursday –8:30 Jobless claims; 9:46 S&P Flash PMIs ; 10:00 Leading Economic Indicators and Home Sales
• Friday – nothing

Earnings this week

• Monday – STNE post
• Tues – TME, XPEV pre
• Wed – PDD, GIS pre; MU, FIVE, CHWY, KBH post
• Thurs – ACN, DRI pre; post NKE, LULU, FDX post
• Friday – nothing

Tracking

• AAPL – finding support around $170. Potential to sell puts there again this week.
• ADBE – reported earnings last week and sold off – bottom could be in - could sell $480 puts and, aggressive long strategy use money from sale to buy upside calls.
• AMD –about $183 level is key for support. Watch if it breaks below there. I might catch a sympathy bid on NVDA conference this week.
• BA – Short the August $260 calls. Stock held above $180 this week. This is now a support area.
• DKS – reported great quarterly numbers – high on pop was $225 area. Could sell calls there for a pullback next week.
• ETHX.b  - still long Ethereum with this TSE etf as per trading plan. Sold remainder last week. Will look to reenter on a pullback to the $17 area.
• GDX – gold broke out last week now trading in a range. The strong dollar not helping gold prices move higher.
• GOOG – found support for $130 and ripped higher this week. The pullback on Friday is probably a bull flag.
• MIDU – breaking out. I am still long.
• ROKU – the third week sold $62 puts expired Friday. Kept premium. Will look to do it again next week.
• TSLA – lost support by $180 and now $160 for the next big area of support. 
• WSM – another earnings play potential. Reported good numbers, popped up $292 high….potential to sell weekly $300 calls next week.

Positions

• AAPL – short $170 puts this week – expired worthless kept premium.
• BA – short $260 call position.
• GOOG – long.
• ROKU – sold short $62 puts – expired worthless again.
• MIDU – long.
• ETHX.b on TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange) – some profits taken but still long for more potential gains. Sold rest as per plan from last week.
• TGT – short $175 calls expiring next Friday. Expired worthless – kept premium.

 

Note: These are investments I am in or watching however, they may not be suitable for all investors. The author of this email is NOT an investment advisory service, a registered investment advisor, or a broker-dealer and I do NOT undertake to advise clients or recipients of this email on which securities they should buy or sell for themselves. This email is provided for information purposes only and traders should always consult with their licensed financial and tax advisors to determine the suitability of any investment.