Hi all,

On Friday the PCE price index data which is the Feds favored indicator for inflation. Data came in pretty much in line with expectations however consumer spending was up slightly. The initial reaction was positive but as the day went on, yields on treasuries headed higher, and the market sold off. Investors may have been disappointed that inflation did not come in lower.

CME Fed watch tool says the odds are still sitting at around 58% for a rate cut in September. Currently, there is 75% odds we see a rate cut by November.

Next week will be a very truncated trading week with a shortened day on Wednesday, and Thursday holidays, and Friday will be light with many traders and investors taking time off and making it an extra-long weekend.

The AI tech stocks continue to support the market as we finished the first half of 2024 up 14.5 % on the SPY. If you take out those stocks, the index would actually be down 2% - just an interesting observation and shows that it is important to be invested in the hot sectors.

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Sectors in Play Last Week

• Energy and Communication Services were the biggest gaining sectors this week.
• Utilities and Staples were the two sectors down the most this week.

Key Levels for this Week

• DOW (39,119) – support 38,500 and resistance 39,300
• QQQ (479) – support 460 and resistance 488
• SPY (544) – support 540 and resistance 550
• IWM (203) – support 195 and resistance 205

What to Watch for this Week

• Monday – 9:45 S&P Global PMI; 10:00 ISM Manufacturing 
• Tuesday – 9:30 Fed Powell speaking
• Wednesday – 8:15 ADP employment; 10:00 ISM Services
• Thursday –holiday
• Friday – 8:30 Employment data

Earnings this week

• Monday – nothing of note
• Tues – PSNY pre also TSLA delivery numbers premarket
• Wed – STZ pre
• Thurs - nothing of note
• Friday – nothing of note

Positions and Trades Last Week

• NVDA – long.
• BA – short $260 call position. 
• CZR – long.
• AAPL and AMD 0DTE selling calls on Friday morning and holding the premium end of the day.
• TLT – New position - short Sept $91 puts. 

Tracking for Potential Trades

• AAPL – Now $220 is resistance and $205 is support would be support and a possible good entry. Selling puts there if you don’t mind owning it at that level or keeping the premium if it does not get back to that level.
• ADBE – breaking out from $540 and could be heading to $580.
• HACK – breaking out and could be heading to a high of $67.
• INTC – flat lining but holding $30. Could be a good long-term hold.
• NFLX - $700 is resistance but I think there is support at $665.
• NVDA – $120 could be a good long entry on a little more profit-taking or sell puts there if you do not mind being forced into a long position at that level.

 

Note: These are investments I am in or watching however, they may not be suitable for all investors. The author of this email is NOT an investment advisory service, a registered investment advisor, or a broker-dealer and I do NOT undertake to advise clients or recipients of this email on which securities they should buy or sell for themselves. This email is provided for information purposes only and traders should always consult with their licensed financial and tax advisors to determine the suitability of any investment.