Hi all,

Markets rose again this week with the small cap stocks leading the way this time. There were a number of good economic data points that came out this week (GDP, ISM, and Housing Sales) all pointing to a continued strong economy.

The PCE price index data released on Friday showed a 0.20% increase month over month as expected, and on an annual basis, it was 2.9% compared to the 3.0% number expected. This showed that the Feds favored inflation gauge continues to show positive progress on the inflation fight.

Intel threw a bit of a wet blanket on the tech sector Friday with its earnings release and guidance. This coming week will be very interesting with so many of the big tech names reporting such as AAPL, META, AMZN, and GOOG. Let’s see how prices react after this big run-up that we have seen on these names. I am going to wait and see then consider trades after the fireworks.

Recap Video 

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Watch the recap on YouTube

Sectors in Play Last Week

• Energy and Communication Services sectors were the biggest gainers this week.
• Basic Materials and Real Estate sectors were the biggest losers on the week.

Key Levels for this Week

• DOW (38,109) – support 37,800 and resistance 38,200
• QQQ (423) – support 410 and resistance 430
• SPY (487) – support 480 and resistance 490
• IWM (194) – support 190 and resistance 200

What to Watch for this Week

• Monday – none
• Tuesday – 9:00 Home price index; 10:00 Consumer confidence
• Wednesday – 8:15 ADP Employment; 9:45 Business barometer; 2:00 Fed rate decision
• Thursday –8:30 Jobless claims; 9:45 Manufacturing PMI; 10:00 ISM manufacturing
• Friday – 8:30 payrolls, unemployment, and wage data; 10:00 Consumer confidence and Factory orders

Earnings this week

• Monday – SOFI pre then SMCI, NUE post
• Tues – UPS, UBS pre then MSFT, GOOG, AMD, SBUX post
• Wed – BA, MA pre then QCOM post
• Thurs – MRK, SHEL, HON pre then AAPL, AMZN, META post
• Friday – XOM, ABBV pre

Tracking

• AAPL – $195 is now resistance and $190 is support but we have earnings release this week so wait and see how it reacts.
• AFRM - $40 is important support. It could drop more if it loses that level. Bought long-dated $36 puts and now monitoring.
• AMD – Continues to rip higher on AI hopes. $185 is top for now. Waiting to see how it reacts to earnings.
• AXP – had earnings. Looks like $205 is top for now – looking to sell some calls there next week if price action looks neutral or bearish.
• BA – Holding long some long-dated calls. Bought $240 and sold $260 to reduce the cost of trade. Monitoring.
• GOOG – $155.00 is the high. Earnings release this week. Wait to see how it reacts.
• IBM – looks toppy after earnings. Sold $195 calls on Friday expiring next Friday.
• META – Could be heading to $400. Earnings release this week. Wait to see how it reacts.
• NFLX – Continued strength after earnings report. Will watch next week for an opportunity to sell upside calls if it runs out of steam.
• TSLA – Very weak after the earnings release. Might get to $170 where there is some support.

Positions

• BA – long vertical call spread $240 x $260 expiring August.
• AFRM – Long $36 puts expiring June.
• IBM – short $195 calls expiring next Friday.

 

Note: These are investments I am in or watching however, they may not be suitable for all investors. The author of this email is NOT an investment advisory service, a registered investment advisor, or a broker-dealer and I do NOT undertake to advise clients or recipients of this email on which securities they should buy or sell for themselves. This email is provided for information purposes only and traders should always consult with their licensed financial advisors and tax advisors to determine the suitability of any investment.