Hi all,

Markets rose again this week as a number of the big-cap technology names dragged indexes higher including the S&P which finished at an all-time high. AI seemed to be the main motivation for these gains. Friday’s consumer confidence number also helped with the reading showing consumer sentiment improving significantly.

These gains came in the face of the ongoing geopolitical risks, budget disagreements in Washington, and a Fed that is continuing to put a damper on early rate cuts. The chance of a project rate cut in March is now significantly lower but is still high for the May meeting.

It was a bit of a lull in earnings reports but we will be getting some interesting reports next week with NFLX and TSLA reporting to name a few. Watch for AI trades to continue to be popular.

Recap Video

Watch the recap on YouTube

 

Sectors in Play Last Week

• Technology and Communication again were the biggest gainers this week.
• The Utilities sector was the biggest loser on the week.

Key Levels for this Week

• DOW (37,863) – support 36,000 and resistance 37,900
• QQQ (421) – support 410 and resistance 425
• SPY (482) – support 475 and resistance 490
• IWM (193) – support 190 and resistance 195

What to Watch for this Week

• Monday – 10:00 US leading Indicators
• Tuesday – nothing
• Wednesday – 9:45 S&P PMI numbers
• Thursday –8:30 Jobless claims, durable goods, and inventory numbers then, 10:00 New Home sales
• Friday – 8:30 PCE index then 10:00 Existing Home sales

Earnings this week

• Monday – LOGI, UAL post
• Tues – JNJ, PG, VZ, GE, MMM pre then NFLX, TXN post
• Wed – ASML pre then TSLA, NOW, IBM, LVS post
• Thurs – AAL, LUV pre then INTC, V post
• Friday – AXP pre

Tracking

• AAPL – $180 was an important support level at 200 sma as I mentioned last week. Sold weekly puts on the bounce – now it is at a resistance level of $192.
• AFRM - $40 is important support. Could drop more if it loses that level. Bought long-dated puts but might have to sell for a loss if they continue higher
• AMD – Continues to rip higher on AI hopes. Really extended to the upside but do not underestimate this hot sector mania trade on AI.
• BA – Flagged this last week to watch for bottoming. Got long some long-dated calls. Bought $240 and sold $260 to reduce the cost of trade.
• GOOG – Broke out higher on Friday. Watch $152.00 as the high and resistance from early 2022.
• META – Lots of strength here – breaking out. Could be heading to $400.
• TLT – Short some calls and puts – expiring worthless and keeping premium.
• TSLA – Very weak – last week's flagged area of support is $210 where it bounced from – watch for the earnings report this Wed after the market closes.

Positions

• AAPL – shorted $180 weekly puts that expire worthless.
• TERN – for small-cap biotech play – stopped out for a loss.
• TLT – short 85 puts expiring in January 2024.
• TLT – short $102 calls expiring in January 2024.
• BA – long vertical call spread $240 x $260 expiring August.
• AFRM – Long $36 puts expiring June.

 

Note: These are investments I am in or watching however, they may not be suitable for all investors. The author of this email is NOT an investment advisory service, a registered investment advisor or a broker-dealer and I do NOT undertake to advise clients or recipients of this email on which securities they should buy or sell for themselves. This email is provided for information purposes only and traders should always consult with their licensed BIDO financial advisors and tax advisors to determine the suitability of any investment.