Hi all,

The jobs numbers released Friday continued to show a fairly robust employment situation. Both employment numbers and wage growth were higher than expected. Initial reaction to the news was negative but as the day went on, buyers showed up and pushed the markets higher.  

The indexes all ended positive on the week again with QQQ and SPY making new closing highs for the year. However, odds for a rate cut in March dropped significantly on the employment data news.

Investors and traders still seem to believe that a soft landing is still in the cards as inflation continues to cool while the jobs market is holding up. 

Bias for the markets is still to the upside with the Santa rally looking like it will continue this coming week. The VIX is very low indicating no fear of a pending sell-off. However, watch for some volatility as the CPI data will come out Tuesday, and then Fed´s Powell will be speaking on Wed at 2:30 after the rate move decision which is widely expected to be no move at all.

Recap Video

Watch the recap on YouTube

Sectors in Play Last Week

• Consumer Discretionary and Communication was the biggest gainer this week.
• Energy and Materials were the weakest sectors of the week.

Key Levels for this Week

• DOW (36,248) – support 36,000 and resistance 36,300
• QQQ (392) – support 382 and resistance 394 then 400
• SPY (460) – support 450 and resistance 460
• IWM (187) – support 170 and resistance 185 then 190

What to Watch for this Week

• Monday – nothing
• Tuesday – 8:30 CPI data
• Wednesday – 8:30 PPI data, 2:00 Fed rate decision, and 2:30 Powell speaks
• Thursday –8:30 Jobless claims and retail sales data
• Friday – 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing and 9;15 Industrial Production

Earnings this week

• Monday – ORCL post
• Tues – BHP pre
• Wed – ADBE post
• Thurs – COST, LEN post
• Friday – DRI pre

Tracking

• AAPL – breaking $195 but resistance is under $200. Potential to sell puts or calls.
• ALK – Nice rebound from sell-off on Hawaiian Airlines purchase. Like these overreactions – see position above.
  AMD – looking extended with resistance at $130.
• AMZN - range bound trading between $143 and $148. An ascending triangle pattern may be ready to break out higher.
• BA – breaking out – see position above.
• GDX – broke down – exited and took profits.
• META – broke out through $325. May go to a retest high of $340. Potential to sell calls and/or puts.
• TNA – small caps breaking out and likely heading higher
• TSLA – still range bound with support at $225 and resistance at $250. The trend looks higher with a potential breakout.
• URA – Took profits over $29 at resistance.

Positions:

• ALK – shorted $32.5 puts and used the money to buy $34 calls. Sold calls for a nice profit. Still holding puts expire on the 15th.
• BA – shorted $240 puts and used the money to buy $242 calls. Expires on the 15th – will look to sell calls early next week like ALK trade.
  HGU on TSX is similar to GDX – sold on the breakdown
• CCJ and URA – sold and took profits and will watch.
• TLT – short 85 puts expiring in January 2024
• TNA – long small-caps ETF
• TSLA – short $255 calls again. Expired worthless and kept premium.

Note: These are investments I am in or watching however, they may not be suitable for all investors. The author of this email is NOT an investment advisory service, a registered investment advisor, or a broker-dealer and I do NOT undertake to advise clients or recipients of this email on which securities they should buy or sell for themselves. This email is provided for information purposes only and traders should always consult with their licensed BIDO financial advisors and tax advisors to determine the suitability of any investment.