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Weekly Market Review and Swing Trade Opportunities August 21st, 2023

Brian PezimBrian PezimAugust 20, 2023
Weekly Market Review and Swing Trade Opportunities August 21st, 2023

Hi all,

Yields and the 10-year treasure rose above the key 4.25 level on Thursday and then pulled back a little Friday. Investors are obviously getting concerned as the markets followed suit by selling off this week. Fed July minutes released on Wednesday indicated some of the members think future hikes are necessary and others want to wait but the general consensus was the rates are not coming down any time soon. 

Addition factors for the sell-off this week could be the job market is still not showing any signs of weakening, China's economic challenges are getting worse, the Bank of Japan started to let interest rates rise and the treasury is boosting debt issuance. 

Markets may bounce back a little but remain under pressure to the downside. NVDA earnings will be interesting – a very strong report and guidance could give a bid to the AI tech sector especially.

Recap Video: 

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Watch the recap on YouTube

 

Sectors in Play Last Week:

  • Technology and Energy sectors were down the least for the week.
  • Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate were the biggest losers of the week.

Key Levels for this Week:

  • DOW (34,500 now) – support level 34,200 and resistance is at 35,300
  • QQQ (358) – support level 350 and resistance is at 370
  • SPY (436) – support level 430 and resistance is at 450
  • IWM (185) – support level 180 and resistance is at 190

What to Watch for this Week:

  • Monday – nothing
  • Tuesday – 10:00 Existing home sales
  • Wednesday – 9:45 S&P flash services and manufacturing PMI and 10:00 New home sales
  • Thursday - 8:30   Jobless claims and 10:00 Jackson Hole speeches from Fed officials 
  • Friday – 10:00 Consumer sentiment and 10:05 Powell speaks at Jackson Hole.

View the Economic Calendar on Trading Terminal

 

Earnings this week:

  • Monday ZM post
  • Tues BIDU, BJ, DKS, LOW, M, MDT pre TOL, URBN post
  • Wed AAP, FL, KSS, PTON, WSM and ADSK NVDA, SNOW
  • Thurs pre NTES, TD, RY, FUTU and INTU, JWN, MRVL, ULTA, WDAY post
  • Friday – nothing of note

View the Earnings Calendar on Trading Terminal

 

Tracking:

- AAPL –Sell off after earnings - $170 looks like support and $180 resistance. Possible area to sell options or vertical spreads.

- AMAT – After earnings. $135 support and $147.5 resistance. Possible area to sell options or vertical spreads.

- AMZN – $130 looks like support and $140 resistance.

- BA - $240 is resistance and $220 is support.

- F – Worth watching and possible buy around $11.5. Low PE and 5% dividend but union negotiations going on now that could impact costs.

- GOOG – Not too much selling on this stock. Will look again to sell puts $124 and/or sell calls $134.

- NVDA – Reporting next week – watching to see the reaction.

- TGT – Bottom last week of $126.

- TSLA - $200 could be where we are going with short-term support at $210.

 

Sector Watch

- XLE – $90.00 is resistance now. We may get a double top here with a weak China recovery. 

YANG – China bear ETF. Lots of negative stuff happening there.

 

Positions:

DKNG – short $63 calls – expired and kept premium.

EXPE – short $113 calls – expired and kept premium.

HD – short $340 calls – expired and kept premium.

NVDA – short $480 calls expired and kept premium.

TSLA – sold short $270 calls.  – expired kept premium.

YANG – long from $10.15

 

Note: These are investments I am in or watching however, they may not be suitable for all investors. The author of this email is NOT an investment advisory service, a registered investment advisor or a broker-dealer and I do NOT undertake to advise clients or recipients of this email on which securities they should buy or sell for themselves. This email is provided for information purposes only and traders should always consult with their licensed BIDO financial advisors and tax advisors to determine the suitability of any investment.

Brian PezimBrian Pezim

Brian (Randy) Pezim is a Canadian trader and investor, with a focus on swing trading equities as well as day trading.