Hi all,

This week it seemed like traders and investors were trying to figure out if bad economic news was good news (ie Fed stops raising rates and maybe even reversing course) or if bad economic news is leading us into a recession. Both outcomes are possible so the question is “where does the market go from here”.

ADP and ISM data were on the weak side and the jobs numbers everyone was concerned about coming out Friday when the markets were closed came in pretty close to expectations. SPY and QQQ have pushed up into an area of what could be resistance. The VIX volatility index is back at a very low level indicating no big fear of a market sell-off. A short term break higher is possible.

Next week starts another earnings season with companies such as JPM, C and WFC kicking things off Friday. The financials will be closely watched given the turmoil that has occurred in this sector and remains a concern. If we get a lot of poor guidance from companies in the coming weeks it is likely we will see stock prices drop. As it is now, market internals are not great with the indexes being held up by a number of large cap companies.

 

Key levels:

 

• DOW (33,485 now) – support level 31,800 and resistance is at 33,800
• QQQ (318) – support level 307 and resistance is at 330
• SPY (409) – support level 380 and resistance is at 410
• IWM (174) – support level 170 and resistance is at 195

 

Recap Video:

 

Watch the recap on YouTube

 

Positions:

 

• WLLW on Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) - long term hold. ($0.85)
• FOM on TSX - this is a small cap mining company. I like the drill results they are getting and management team is solid. Highly speculative at $3.00.
• FHN - Long at $17.
• HGU - Long gold miner ETF on TSX (GDX equivalent on NYSE).
• PAAS - Long silver play.
• TLT – Shorted $103 April 6 puts - covered them and rolled up to short $105 puts.

 

What to Watch for this Week:

 

• Tuesday 1:30PM, 6:30PM and 7:30PM Fed speakers
• Wednesday 8:30AM CPI numbers then 2:00PM Fed Minutes released
• Thursday 8:30AM – PPI
• Friday – Retail Sales

View the Economic Calendar on Trading Terminal

 

Sectors in Play Last Week:

 

• Communications Services and Utilities sectors were the biggest gainers for the week.
• Energy and Materials were the largest losers.

 

Earnings this week:

 

• Monday - PSMT, TLRY
• Tuesday - ACI, KMX, SJR
• Wednesday - INFY, FRC
• Thursday - FAST, DAL, FIZZ
• Friday - UNH, JPM, WFC, BLK, C, PNC

View the Earnings Calendar on Trading Terminal

 

Tracking:

 

• AAPL – $170 still resistance but AAPL still seems to have buyer. Watching for a double top then opportunity to sell calls.
• AMZN – Through $100 resistance and now is support. Opportunity to sell puts.
• BABA - Looks ready to break-out higher this coming week.
• FNH - Less enthusiastic about this right now- sold most but still holding a bit at $17.
• GOOG - Looks ready to go to $120 based on AI involvement.
• NUGT – Gold keeps going higher on weak US dollar and financial market concerns.
• NVDA – $280 is resistance but if QQQ moves higher – this could break higher again. Better to sell downside puts as I expect buyers are ready to support it on any weakness.
• SLV – Silver on a run with gold, $24 is next area of resistance if we move higher.
• TSLA – Stock under pressure. $200 resistance and $170 support.