All eyes have been on bitcoin lately – and that makes sense, with its monster rally into six-figure territory. Slipping through the radar, however, is the fact that ether has quietly outrun bitcoin by about 10% since the start of November. And unlike the ol’ bitrocket, the No. 2 crypto is still below its all-time high. So here are three reasons why investors are turning to ether for a crypto-catchup opportunity.
1. Ethereum is still trading at good value (versus most of the crypto market).
Ethereum is by far the biggest blockchain in decentralized finance (DeFi). Data provider DeFi-Llama shows that around 57% of all the total value locked (TVL) now sits in Ethereum smart contracts (blue, in the chart). In other words, more than half of all blockchain-based trading, lending, and staking value belongs to Ethereum. Plus, DeFi is the biggest area in crypto – that’s according to the Andreessen Horowitz report I wrote about in October.
The report also mentioned that stablecoins (tokens that track the dollar and other traditional currencies) are crypto’s “killer app”. Well, Ethereum owns most of that market, too.
Now, ether does have a much bigger market value than its DeFI rivals like Solana (SOL) and Binance Smart Chain (BNB coin). But if we divide its market value by its TVL, the ratio is 6.1 on DeFiLlama. That’s lower than Solana’s (12.1) and Binance Smart Chain’s (18.4). And just so we’re clear: a lower ratio means better value here.
And yet, ether’s played second fiddle to other cryptos this year. It’s up around 80%, sure, but it’s still well behind the likes of Solana (160%) or bitcoin (140%). And we can see this in the Ethereum Dominance chart below. It measures ether’s share of the total crypto market: when it falls, it means ether is underperforming the broader market.
But, have a look at the chart: the metric is now sitting in a major “bounce area” – where old resistance from 2019 and 2021 might now be flipping into new support. If this were a stock, I’d be buying it from a technical standpoint (see this piece on support resistance flips to understand why).
Keep in mind, this chart shows how ether is doing against other cryptos – and not against the US dollar. But if you’re looking for value and good risk-versus-reward potential (again, compared to other cryptos), ether could be an option.
2. Ethereum has spot ETFs.
Spot Ethereum ETFs (exchange-traded funds) began trading on the US stock market in July of this year. Apart from bitcoin, there’s no other crypto with this badge of honor. Remember, spot ETFs buy the assets they track, one for one – so when investors buy Ethereum ETF shares, those funds buy real ether.
BlackRock, Fidelity, and other big names have had huge success with their bitcoin ETFs since launching them in January. In fact, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (ticker: IBIT; expense ratio: 0.25%) was the first ETF ever to take in more than $1 billion in a single trading day. IBIT now holds just under $50 billion of investor capital, while the rest have about $60 billion between them.
Ethereum ETFs, though, haven’t exactly followed in that wake – with total holdings of just $10 billion across nine funds. But things are starting to pick up: on Thursday, a record $428 million poured into spot ether ETFs in a single day – marking their ninth consecutive day of net inflows. Also, note in the chart below how there’s been a steady uptick in flows since early November (blue arrow).
3. BlackRock likes Ethereum.
Earlier this year, BlackRock launched a tokenized money market fund – the BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL). This fund takes traditional money market fund shares and “tokenizes” them – making it easier to trade and manage on the blockchain.
BlackRock didn’t just pick any blockchain for this fund – it chose Ethereum. And JPMorgan and Fidelity are experimenting with tokenized assets on Ethereum, too. Sure, it might not be as fast as Solana and its other rivals – but it's more secure and robust. As trade-fi merges with DeFi, we’ll probably see more tokenized assets and funds – and they’ll probably be built on Ethereum for those reasons.
And that could be good for the price of ether in the long run. Whenever a tokenized transaction happens, there are ether fees involved. So, more transactions drive demand for the coin.
What’s the opportunity here?
Look, ether has started to rally quite aggressively here. And with that, comes more volatility, and a greater chance of a downside flush. Also keep in mind that the $4,000 level – where ether’s trading around now – is technically a resistance ceiling (blue). And risk management 101 says you don’t want to go too gung-ho buying into resistance. So if you plan on buying in, you’ll ideally want to do it on “down days” to give yourself a bit of a buffer. But if ether can punch through that $4,000 ceiling (and ideally turn it into support), the next resistance would be its prior all-time high at around $4,800 (yellow).
If you’re more long-term-minded and believe in Ethereum as much as BlackRock does, this could be the start of a more dramatic move. As usual, history isn’t a perfect guide – but ether taking the reins for a while would be in line with past crypto bull markets.
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