If you don’t live and breathe crypto, it can be tough to figure out what’s going on and how to approach the market. That said, there are ways to make sense of it without overcomplicating things. So here are three charts to help you check the market’s temperature – and what they’re saying now.

Chart 1: Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

Bitcoin spent the past few weeks trying to launch above the big $100,000 per coin mark. And now that it’s perched above it, it should ideally stay above it to keep its bullish momentum intact (and the overall momentum of the crypto market, for that matter).

The rationale here is pretty simple: six figures is now a key psychological level for investors – and dipping back below that would make them a bit edgy. What’s more, it would technically signal a “failed breakout”, and those usually don’t end so well for bitcoin.

Now, the chart below uses weekly price candles (green and red bars). So each candle represents one week of price movement for bitcoin. If bitcoin were to close (finish) a week back below $100,000 with a red candle, that failed breakout signal would officially kick in. But until that actually happens, bitcoin is still “strong” in my books – and is likely to run higher before the next real shakeout (you know, a 20% to 40% drop).

Again, what matters here are the weekly closures: a quick, temporary flush below $100,000 doesn’t count. And by the way, since crypto trades 24/7, weekly closures happen at midnight Coordinated Universal Time (UTC).

Chart 2: Ether versus bitcoin (ETHBTC)

The next chart you’ll want to track is ETHBTC – that’s the amount of bitcoin it takes to buy one ether. When this chart is moving down, it means bitcoin is outmuscling ether. When it’s moving up, it’s the opposite: ether is the better performer versus bitcoin.

Now, ETHBTC can rise even when both cryptos are falling in US dollars – it just means ether is falling by less. But historically, the more common scenario is that ETHBTC rises when bitcoin is either rallying or staying put. That’s because the No. 2 crypto tends to gain ground when investors are willing to take on more risk – and that usually only happens when the OG crypto is holding the market steady.

And here’s where things start to get interesting. Notice in the chart how ETHBTC bounced right around the 0.618 “golden Fibonacci retracement” level (in gold) at about 0.031 bitcoin per ether. In other words, the trading pair “retraced” roughly 61.8% of its prior rally from 2020 to early 2022.

This kind of price action is par for the course in crypto: you’ll often see reactions near big technical levels like this. So unless ETHBTC now closes a weekly candle back below that golden Fibonacci level, there’s a good chance ether might have (finally) bottomed versus bitcoin. A weekly close above 0.04 (i.e., near the highs of November and December) could spark a bigger ether rally (again, versus bitcoin).

Until the ratio breaks decisively in either direction, though, it’s just chopping around in a sideways trading range, trying to find its footing.

Chart 3: Smaller altcoin market share (OTHERS.D)

The final chart takes us one step further down the crypto risk curve – to see how smaller altcoins are holding up. If you search “OTHERS.D” in TradingView, you’ll see a chart that tracks the market share of altcoins outside the top ten cryptos by market size. In other words, it shows how much of the total crypto market is made up of smaller, more speculative investments. When it’s going up, it means those riskier bets are gaining market share versus the top ten, more stable cryptos.

OTHERS.D had a big move higher over November and early December – sparking a mini altcoin season. So now, the question is whether that altcoin run has any more fuel in the tank. Well, if you check the chart, you’ll see that it was rejected at the diagonal trendline connecting the highs of 2022 and early 2024. And over the past two weeks, smaller altcoins have cooled off, losing market share to bigger, more established players like bitcoin and ether.

But you’ll also notice that the chart is making higher lows, and basically looks to be wedging into a tighter and tighter trading range. Tighter trading ranges usually come before much bigger moves (when the range eventually breaks). A weekly close above the last high (say, 12.1%) would look great for smaller altcoins – with that range breaking to the upside.

But if you’re leaning more bullish on smaller altcoins right now, here’s another scenario to consider: OTHERS.D is currently sitting at the mid-point of its trading range (white, in the chart) – and (so far) seems to be bouncing off of it.

Just keep in mind that this is only a general gauge for altcoins – and not all altcoins are created equal.