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Sure, Demographics Are A Big Part Of The Investing Story

Trading Terminal
April 19, 2024
Sure, Demographics Are A Big Part Of The Investing Story

Demographics are a big thing in investing, but it’s not the only thing.

India’s working-age population is booming, even as other markets – like the US, Europe, and Japan – are set to see theirs decline. And that split has driven a flood of interest into Indian assets. After all, more workers mean faster economic growth, while fewer workers mean slower growth.

Change in the domestic working-age population over the last 20 years and next 20 years. Source: BlackRock.
Change in the domestic working-age population over the last 20 years and next 20 years. Source: BlackRock.

And that’s just part of the picture. Fewer workers also can create added inflation: people stop producing (i.e. stop working) when they retire but they don’t typically spend much less, at least not initially, according to BlackRock. And that drop in supply but stable demand can lead to higher prices. Meanwhile, a shortage of workers can spark wage increases, which can also contribute to bigger price rises. And of course, quicker inflation can lead to higher interest rates – which tends to cool an economy. Plus, an aging population also puts added pressure on governments: it leaves fewer workers paying income taxes right when they need to spend more on healthcare and old-age benefits

But demographics are not the end-all, be-all of investing wisdom: Japan has the world’s worst working-age demographic outlook, but it’s been one of the best-performing stock markets over the past year. And there are plenty of investing opportunities not to miss in the US and Europe.

So, while BlackRock likes India for its demographic advantages, it also sees some big winners emerging from the aging populations in the US, Europe, and Japan. In those places, BlackRock favors healthcare stocks, which are set to benefit as the population ages and requires more medical attention, and automation stocks, as economies seek to alleviate strains from the coming worker shortage.