Happy Inflation Report Day!
First and foremost, my friend, colleague, and quant, Carlo Zarattini and I have published a paper together on the long-term profitability of the Opening Range Breakout. We would love the trading community to read it and let us know what you think. You can follow Carlo at his Twitter. He posts some very interesting stuff! The title of the paper is: “Can Day Trading Really Be Profitable? Evidence of Sustainable Long-term Profits from Opening Range Breakout (ORB) Day Trading Strategy vs. Benchmark in the US Stock Market”.
Let us know what you think about this paper and the results!
Today was CPI report number day!
Looking at the Trading Terminal economic calendar, it seems that the CPI numbers came in better than expected, and US inflation has cooled down to 5% from the expected 5.1%. Today, the market rallied, but subsequently traded weaker and then flat for the rest of the day. Although the economy is always confusing and ambiguous, this quarter seems like a particularly noisy time. There is no limit to the possible interpretations of the macro data right now.
Last Friday's jobs report was kind of a soft landing. The new job creation was solid and unemployment went down to 3.5% from 3.6%. Wages showed more deceleration, and the Labor Force Participation Rate ticked higher. That checks all the boxes that the Fed, in theory, would like to see: growth, but some loosening of the economy and price inflation at the same time. By now, everyone knows that the Fed's rate will be around 5 to 5.25%, and then they will hold it there, and thus there is not much surprise in the market.
It seems that what is important about the market is no longer rates or inflation, but earnings is now the name of the game. Earnings season begins this week, with the big banks starting to report on Friday. Next week will be another excellent look at how resilient American companies are, and how they can manage their profit margins in the wake of raising costs and inflation-worried customers.
Today, I had some amazing trades on TSLA, short aligned with Thor and Paras. Please watch my recap with Aiman to see how some professional traders trade one ticker all at the same time!
Yesterday, we had an incredible webinar by Thor, and the recording and slides are now published online in our Education Center. Tonight, we have our in-house psychologist, Créde Sheehy-Kelly, discussing: How to Neutralize Pressure While Trading. Pressure affects the nature and quality of your thinking in specific ways.
From the dreaded “paralysis by analysis” to impulsive decision making, pressure can make you deviate very far from your trading plan. In tonight’s webinar, Créde will explore how pressure impacts your thinking, and how you can use practical techniques to harness the power of your cognition and access the right thinking at the right time for peak performance. Créde’s presentation begins at a special time of 5pm ET.
All webinars are open to Elite members and the recordings are available for 24/7 access in our Education Center. I am looking forward to seeing many of you at tonight’s webinar.
To your success,
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Andrew Aziz (Ph.D.) is a Canadian trader, investor, proprietary fund manager, official Forbes business Council member, investor, and #1 best-selling author.